The areas of England that could escape Tier 3 next week as infection rates drop

With coronavirus cases in Greater Manchester falling rapidly, there’s hope we could escape Tier 3 next week, although it looks like London and Essex could be moving up into the highest tier.

The government is set to re-assess the tiers on Wednesday, December 16th, and it looks like Greater Manchester could escape the toughest restrictions for the first time in months.

The Mirror conducted an analysis of coronavirus rates since November 26th, and have found which places could be moving up or down due to changes in the numbers.

Daniel Nisbet / Flickr

Like Greater Manchester, infection rates are dropping in lots of Tier 3 areas, including Hull, Birmingham, and West Yorkshire, raising hopes more areas will be able to drop down into Tier 2 – however, it’s not clear by how much rates need to fall in order to move down a tier.

Andy Burnham said yesterday that while there has been a ‘significant decline’ in hospital admissions across Greater Manchester, the infection rates are varying in different areas, with cases in Bury actually growing by 5% (to 225.7 per 100,000), while in Trafford they’ve dropped down into double digits (81.5 per 100,000).

In other Tier 3 areas, Kent is likely to remain under the toughest restrictions as rates continue to rise there, with Lincolnshire in the same position, and it looks like London and Essex could be joining them in Tier 3.

Like in Greater Manchester, London has seen a variation in infection levels across the city, with places like Camden and Richmond having relatively low rates, while Waltham Forest and Havering have seen high levels.

Colin and Kim Hansen / Wikimedia

The top ten areas with the highest rates include six in Kent, two in Lincolnshire and one each in Essex and London, with Swale in Kent currently having the nation’s highest rates (619.7 cases per 100,000), followed by Medway (602.4).

But the overall rate is only one measure the government looks at when considering tiers, they also consider the number of hospital beds an area has and the prevalence of the virus – specifically in the over-60s.

Here’s a breakdown of the rates in different areas of England, courtesy of the Mirror’s analysis. 

The places where rates have increased in Tier 2:

Essex

• Basildon, 433.8, (812), 275.1, (515)
• Brentwood, 281.7, (217), 199.9, (154)
• Thurrock, 252.4, (440), 216.2, (377)
• Epping Forest, 249.1, (328), 221.0, (291)

London

• Havering, 378.7, (983), 337.5, (876)
• Waltham Forest, 316.6, (877), 217.3, (602)
• Barking and Dagenham, 310.9, 261.6, (557)
• Newham, 263.9, (932), 223.1, (788)
• Bexley, 259.8, (645), 227.2, (564)

Surrey

• Runnymede, 284.0, (254), 191.2, (171)
• Woking, 218.3, (220), 193.5, 146.8, (148)

Hertfordshire

• Broxbourne, 264.2, (257), 196.3, (191)
• Watford, 199.8, (193), 164.6, (159)
• Hertsmere, 158.2, (166), 146.8, (154)
• East Hertfordshire, 146.2, (219), 128.2, (192)
• North Hertfordshire, 100.3, (134), 96.6, (129)

East Midlands

• Rutland, 97.7, (39), 47.6, (19)

North West

• Barrow-in-Furness, 123.8, (83), 102.9, (69)

Buckinghamshire

• Milton Keynes, 182.2, (491), 167.0, (450)
• Aylesbury Vale, 160.4, (320), 132.4, (264)
• High Wycombe, 151.2, (264), 139.1, (243)

The places where rates have decreased in Tier 2:

Liverpool City Region

• St Helens, 129.6, (234), 170.6, (308)
• Liverpool, 88.1, (439), 147.2, (733)
• Wirral, 57.1, (185), 112.3, (364)

Worcestershire

• Worcester, 82.0, 153.1, (155)
• Malvern Hills, 61.0, 87.7, (69)

Norfolk

• Norwich, 121.6, (171), 140.9, (198)
• South Norfolk, 109.3, (154), 137.7, (194)

Northamptonshire

• Northampton, 197.2, (443), 227.1, (510)
• South Northamptonshire, 113.2, (107), 201.1, (190)
• Corby, 101.1, (73), 164.8, (119)

North West

• Carlisle, 78.2, (85), 233.7, (254)
• Warrington, 120.9, (254), 187.1, (393)
• Cheshire East, 103.1, (396), 164.8, (633)
• Cheshire West and Chester, 100.9, (346), 168.2, (577)

Suffolk

• Ipswich, 160.7, (220), 161.4, (221)
• East Suffolk, 61.7, (154), 71.4, (178)
• West Suffolk, 53.6, (96), 60.9, (109)

The places where rates have increased in Tier 3:

Kent

• Swale, 619.7, (930), 532.4, (799)
• Medway, 602.4, (1,678), 442.3, (1,232)
• Gravesham, 423.6, (453), 392.7, (420)
• Thanet, 419.9, (596), 478.4, (679)
• Maidstone, 409.1, (703), 277.0, (476)

The places where rates have decreased in Tier 3:

East Yorkshire

• Hull, 200.9, (522), 460.0, (1195)
• East Riding of Yorkshire, 147.4, (503), 278.5, (950)

Greater Manchester

• Oldham, 153.5, (364), 366.9, (870)
• Rochdale, 215.4, (479), 342.2, (761)
• Wigan, 187.1, (615), 301.2, (990)
• Manchester, 169.8, (939), 245.3, (1,356)
• Trafford, 85.1 (202), 169.4 (402)
• Bury 225.7 (431), 300.5 (574)

Lincolnshire

• Boston, 387.6, (272), 438.9, (308)
• Lincoln, 329.3, (327), 391.7, (389)
• East Lindsey, 176.4, (250), 429.0, (608)
• North Lincolnshire, 174.1, (300), 341.3, (588)
• North East Lincolnshire, 153.5, (245), 372.9, (595)

North East

• Hartlepool, 222.1, (208), 364.1, (341)
• South Tyneside, 205.3, (310), 336.5, (508)
• Middlesbrough, 180.9, (255), 309.3, (436)
• Sunderland, 162.8, (452), 275.8, (766)
• Newcastle upon Tyne, 113.9, (345), 300.8, (911)

Staffordshire

• Stoke-on-Trent, 321.8, (825), 419.3, (1,075)
• Newcastle-under-Lyme, 204.0, (264), 407.1, (527)
• East Staffordshire, 220.5, (264), 362.4, (434)

West Midlands

• Sandwell, 211.3, (694), 406.5, (1,335)
• Wolverhampton, 243.4, (641), 343.6, (905)
• Birmingham, 191.4, (2,186), 339.8, (3,880)
• Walsall, 194.4, (555), 320.2, (914)

Warwickshire

• Coventry 129.5 (481), 200.5 (745)
• Rugby 105.6 (115), 212 (231)

West Yorkshire

• Bradford, 192.7, (1,040), 362.9, (1,959)
• Calderdale, 192.0, (406), 306.4, (648)
• Kirklees, 182.6, (803), 373.6 (1,643)
• Leeds, 142.5, (1130), 266.3, (2,112),

South Yorkshire

• Doncaster, 214.2, (668), 245.3, (765)
• Rotherham, 184.6, (490), 232.1, (616)
• Barnsley, 139.8, (345), 256.8, (634)
• Sheffield, 131.1, (767), 223.6, (1,308)

Lancashire

• Pendle, 286.6, (264), 311.6, (287)
• Blackburn with Darwen, 263.2, (394), 335.3, (502)
• Burnley, 247.4, (220), 356.5, (317)
• Rossendale, 226.6, (162), 303.6, (217)
• Hyndburn, 169.0, (137), 407.2, (330)
• Blackpool, 147.7, (206), 205.1, (286)

East Midlands

• Nottingham, 152.0, (506), 196.8, (655)
• Bassetlaw, 256.3, (301), 290.3, (341)
• Derby, 144.6, (372), 260.8, (671)

Leicestershire

• Oadby and Wigston, 301.7, (172), 413.9, (236)
• Leicester, 245.6, (870), 383.4, (1,358)
• Blaby, 203.9, (207), 346.7, (352)
• North West Leicestershire, 113.9, (118), 279.9, (290)

South West

• South Gloucestershire, 136.4, (389), 212.2, (605)
• Bristol, 126.7, (587), 300.4, (1,392)
• North Somerset, 113.9, (245), 204.6, (440)

South East

• Slough, 238.7, (357), 323.0, (483)
  

The above numbers are based on two different testing programmes, both tests in laboratories (pillar one) and tests in the wider community (pillar two), and the figure is the number of new cases per 100,000 people.